BIBFRAME Work

Title

Modeling inflation after the crisis

Type

• Monograph
• Text

Contribution

• Watson, Mark W. (contributor)
• National Bureau of Economic Research (contributor)
• Stock, James H. (author )

Language

• English

Classification

LCC: HB1 (Assigner: dlc) (Status: used by assigner)

Content

• text

Supplementary content

• bibliography

Summary

"In the United States, the rate of price inflation falls in recessions. Turning this observation into a useful inflation forecasting equation is difficult because of multiple sources of time variation in the inflation process, including changes in Fed policy and credibility. We propose a tightly parameterized model in which the deviation of inflation from a stochastic trend (which we interpret as long-term expected inflation) reacts stably to a new gap measure, which we call the unemployment recession gap. The short-term response of inflation to an increase in this gap is stable, but the long-term response depends on the resilience, or anchoring, of trend inflation. Dynamic simulations (given the path of unemployment) match the paths of inflation during post-1960 downturns, including the current one"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Authorized Access Point

Stock, James H. Modeling inflation after the crisis

Admin Metadata

• Date: 2026-09-11T20:17:18.733551+00:00
• Agent: cbc
• Status: c
• Derived from: 16602093

Admin Metadata

• Date: 2026-09-11
• Cataloger id: Unknown
• Description level: http://id.loc.gov/ontologies/bibframe-2-6-0/
• Description language: eng
• Description authentication: pcc